Between May 2 and June 3, 2016,
CAPS is producing 24-member,
WRF-ARW and NMMB Storm-Scale
Ensemble Forecasts (SSEF) for the full continental U.S. (CONUS)
domain, assimilating radial
velocity and reflectivity data from over 140 WSR-88D radars
and other available observations using the single-time (non-cycled)
ARPS 3DVAR with complex cloud analysis system.
The daily 60-hour-long forecasts
(some ARW and all NMMB members run 36-h) are initialized at 00 UTC (7pm CDT). These forecasts are produced on
NSF Xsede Supercomputer
a Dell C8220 supercomputer system, at the University of Texas at Austin.
This system is referred to as
'3DVAR-based ensemble'. Between June 20 and July 22, a 15-member SSEF is produced to support the 2016 HMT FFaIR experiment.
cycled ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) + GSI data assimilation
is performed on the same 3-km CONUS grid,
assimilating all WSR-88D radar data over a
one-hour period (2300-0000 UTC) at 15 minute intervals,
after 5 hour cycled ensemble forecasts from 1800 UTC, with 40 ensemble
members with hourly GSI analysis. A total of 13 forecasts of
60 hour long are
produced from the final 0000 UTC analyses using WRF-ARW. These
forecasts are produced using another NSF Xsede supercomputer,
Darter a Cray XC30,
operated by NICS
at the University of Tennessee. This system is referred to as
Additional details can be found
in the 2016 CAPS HWT
Spring Experiment Plan Document.