CAPS produces realtime high-resolution weather analyses and forecasts throughout the year and enhanced forecasts during the spring storm season.

Ensemble Forecasts for Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) & HMT

Between April 30 and June 1, 2018, CAPS is producing 28-member, 3-km-resolution, WRF-ARW Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts (SSEF) for the full continental U.S. (CONUS) domain, assimilating radial velocity and reflectivity data from over 140 WSR-88D radars and other available observations using the single-time (non-cycled) ARPS 3DVAR with complex cloud analysis system. The daily 60-hour-long forecasts (some members run 36-h) are initialized at 00 UTC (7pm CDT). These forecasts are produced on Supercomputer Stampede2 of TACC, at the University of Texas at Austin. This system is referred to as '3DVAR-based ensemble'. A new convection-allowing FV3 ensemble using GFDL's FV3 global forecasting model core with nested 3-km CONUS grid with different microphysics and PBL is produced, also on Stampede2 . Between June 18 and July 20, a 15-member SSEF is produced to support the 2018 HMT FFaIR experiment.

Separately, cycled GSI + ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation is performed on the same 3-km CONUS grid. The 40 member ensemble is initialized at 1800 UTC each day, and assimilate the RAP/HRRR GSI data stream hourly (1900-0000 UTC) with all WSR-88D radar data over a one-hour period (2300-0000 UTC) at 15 minute intervals. A total of 10 forecasts of 60 hour long are produced from the final 0000 UTC analyses using WRF-ARW. These forecasts are produced using another NSF XSEDE supercomputer, Bridges, operated by PSC at the University of Tennessee. This system is referred to as 'GSI+EnKF-based ensemble'.

Additional details can be found in the 2018 CAPS HWT Spring Experiment Plan Document.

Analyses and Forecasts for CASA Dallas-Fort Worth Testbed

CAPS is producing realtime 400-m-resolution low-level wind analyses that are updated every 5 min for CASA Spring Experiment. Available CASA and other sources of data are going into the analyses. Furthermore, up to 2-hour-long Very-Short-Range NWP forecasts at a 1-km resolution are produced every 20 minutes when active weather exists within the CASA Oklahoma network. CASA analysis and forecasts are produced on OSCER's Boomer system at the University of Oklahoma, using nearly 2000 processor cores.

High-Resolution Hurricane Forecasts

Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
National Weather Center, Suite 2500
120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072, USA
Phone: (405) 325-0453   Fax: (405) 325-7614   E-mail:
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